Jan 3, 2010

Year of the Tiger - What Portends in 2010



Year of the Tiger – What Portends in 2010


The beginning of the New Year of 2010 and the beginning of a new decade and as we ponder on happenings of the past we will naturally wander into and about the future.

For ages since the beginning of civilization people’s thoughts are into the eternal space of time flowing from the future to the past as in “coming and going” in an encyclical nature. (He he, yes , the past comes from the future in meta-psychics and returns to the past...)

The study of cycles is today universal as with the study of astronomy or physics which is the concept of frequency and frequencies as in occurrence and oscillation (oscillate; as from a psychics, binary or mathematical perspective). Any discipline of study will never be complete without the study of its cycle or the forces of it.

Everything moves in a fix pattern like the earth’s orbit of the sun or the moon’s orbit of the earth in coherence with the earth’s cyclical orbit. Everything is in motion and moves and vibrates in a systemic pattern collectively in line with the oscillation of the entire universe.

The ancients have studied these movements and formulated their findings into a mathematical form of symbols and its permutations, Astronomy is the most ancient of the sciences and it is today common knowledge that the moon and the sun influenced the movements of the tide in the sea in a cyclical pattern. A point of note here is that today the subject of astronomy and astrology is detached from each other and astrology is not a mainstream science subject however the study of cycles and patterns are a component of the modern sciences.

Well, I think this bit of introduction on cycles is adequate for our purpose here today as we are going to relate the economic cycle to the ancient astrological chart. And it must be pointed out here that it is the intention to simplify the presentation based on historical facts on to the major astrological cycle and will not be looking at greater intensity of the mathematical permutations and even than it is an eye opener at what is being presented here today.

We are going to look at a certain cycle of the year of the Tiger from the Chinese astrology and in particular this year of 2010 is the year of the “Golden Tiger” (or Metal) which will come in to effect on February 14th. The Tiger or “Yin” (name of the Tiger in the Chinese astrology) is the third cycle of the 12 year astrological cycle. The Tiger inherent element is “Wood” with the polarity of “Yang” (of the male female principle as in Ying and Yang) and occupies the direction of ENE (east – northeast) and rules the hour from 3am to 5am of the 12 Chinese hours. There is a conflict of the elements here this year with Wood – Metal configuration. There are a wee bit extra detail here just for info but we will not cover details and degree of intensity of the interaction of the mathematical symbols and or permutations of the elements. We are going to just look at the occurrence that is happening in the financial world and more specific in relation to the American stock market or the Dow Jones which inevitably affects the whole world.

Below is an old base research chart of mine that can indicate a lot of other information but for now we will cover the cycle of the Tiger on the financial world.

CYCLE ANALYSIS ~ Chinese Astrology










Rat

2008

1996

1984

1972

1960

1948

1936


Ox

2009

1997

1985

1973

1961

1949

1937


Tiger

2010

1998

1986

1974

1962

1950

1938


Rabbit

2011

1999

1987

1975

1963

1951

1939


Dragon

2012

2000

1988

1976

1964

1952

1940


Snake

2013

2001

1989

1977

1965

1953

1941

1929

 Horse

2014

2002

1990

1978

1966

1954

1942

1930

Goat

2015

2003

1991

1979

1967

1955

1943

1931

Monkey

2016

2004

1992

1980

1968

1956

1944

1932

Rooster

2017

2005

1993

1981

1969

1957

1945

1933

Dog

2018

2006

1994

1982

1970

1958

1946

1934

Boar

2019

2007

1995

1983

1971

1959

1947

1935


The boxes highlighted in yellow in general indicate an economic boom and the boxes in grey highlight the recession years (for Malaysia).

The Tiger box being highlighted covers seven cycles from 1938 to 2010 and we shall see what happens during those years from a financial viewpoint with special reference to the Dow Jones of the United States of America (USA).

The charts below contains a lot of historical information in relation to the Dow  and also shows the presiding President (in blue band on top of chart) during the period but for now just study the year as depicted and the year before and after the Tiger year as you might find some behavioral  patterns in comparisons to the present which will light up the path going forward.

  •  We will look at 72 years ago from 1938, the year of the Earth Tiger where the Dow had fallen to below100 points again si from a high of almost 200 points in 1937 after the great depression years from 1929 to 1933 and where the Dow started recovering from 1934 and ended with the beginning of World War II in 1939. (See Chart  1930s Below)
                                                                                        {1938}
  • The next Tiger Year is of the Metal element in 1950 and again the Metal element here is significant of war and saw the beginning of the Korean war which saw the Dow taking another dip and lasted until 1953. The war was aggravated with Chinese forces entered on North Korea's side that saw the war in a stalemate with either side making any progress. (See chart below)
                   { 1950 }

  •  Another exciting year for the Water Tiger in 1962 which saw the Dow falling almost 25% from over 730 points to 558 points. This is the year of the Cuban Crisis and the beginning of the cold war with Russia that result in the assassination of President John F.Kennedy in 1963. (See Chart Below).


                                             {1962 }


  •  How brutal is the Tiger and in 1974 of the Wood Tiger we saw another recession that saw the Dow crashing after breaking the 1000 points level in 1973 by more than 50% to 577.60 points in december 1974 and it would be another 10 years later that saw the Dow hitting the 1000 level again in late 1982. This is also the year during the Vietnam war and the watergate scandal that leads to the resignation of President Nixon. (Chart Below)
                                                                     { 1974 } 


  • 1986 The Year of the Fire Tiger with the element of Wood (Tiger's natural element) fuels the fire that gave it strength and stability that saw the outbreak of  the Insider Financial Scandals in the corporate world as most of you will remember the blockbuster movie featuring Michael Douglas as the greedy Gordon Gekko in "Wall Street" of 1987. The outbreak of Insider trading in 1986 led to the great crash of 1987 with the Dow crashing from a high of over 2700 points by almost 1000 points as the biggest drop on record with a climax of about 23% drop in one day of October 19 making it a record drop ever. (Chart Below)
                                   { 1987 }
  • The Earth Tiger returns in 1998 to haunt the financial world resulting in the Russian Crisis that saw the collapse of the  Russian financial market which was triggered by the Asian financial crisis of 1997 that saw the crash of oil and commodity prices which makes up 80% of Russian exports and saw the highest inflation ever reaching above 80% with prices of basic food rising up over 100% This crisis was reflected in the Dow which plummet by about 2000 points from over 9300 points to 7500 points. (Chart Below)


                                                                              { 1998 }

In Conclusion

The Tiger Cycle in relation to the financial world is unique as every Tiger year  for the past cycles going as far back as there are records, the Dow Jones of the USA crashes and here i would like to stress a point that the Chinese character for crisis is made up of the words "danger" and "opportunity".

"The Dow Jones Crashes Every Tiger Year!"

In every crisis there is a great opportunity for gains and sometimes much bigger gains are being presented. I have known investors that have made a lot of profits from this Tiger cycle and i hope this presentation would caution you to the danger that lurks as well as alerting you to the chance that might be coming your way.


In the ancient description of the Tiger, it is one that symbolises power, passion and courage. The Tiger also signifies change, rebellion and is unpredictable. It is believed that the Tiger commands awe and respect from the four quarters and is revered as the sign that  fends off the three dangers of fire, thieves and ghosts.


Note: This is an ongoing research and i believe there has not been a presentation of this nature in terms of the relation of the financial world to the cycles of the astrological chart. This presentation has been made simple for easy understanding.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi,
This is my first visit to your blog and it is a very interesting blog. I have just read your I-Ching story and i could not find Part3 of this stimulating story. Where is part3 located.
Thanks.

Unknown said...

Hi Anon,
Haha, actually part III has not been published yet and will be posted real soon. (Before the Lunar New Year)

Waiting for the opportune timing.

Thanks for taking an interest in this site.

Anonymous said...

The next financial crisis will come from China with a big bubble ballooning.

The China real estate rush is fueling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments. "Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop," warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Finance Research Center.

China Premier Wen Jiabao told Xinhua news agency that "property prices have risen too quickly." He pledged a crackdown on property speculators.

Anonymous said...

hi Hawk,
How will the predicted financial crisis affect Malaysia?

Porky said...

Hawk, your tiger very fierce looking. I am scared! Will it eat me...

Unknown said...

Hi Anon 4:19PM,
Yes there is that possibility of China being the "trigger" and thanks for sharing your story.

Hi Anon 5:48PM,
Malaysia will certainly be affected if there is a crash in Wall Street but how badly affected will have to be seen.

Hi Porky,
Yes that is a fierce looking Tiger and compliments to the photographer. I was looking for one to depict the coming year of 2010. Don't worry about the Tiger eating you if your name means year of the Pig or Boar as in general it should be a great year for the Piggy. In chinese astrology the tiger and pig are the best of friends.

houdini said...

Najib wants us to stay in gaga land awaiting his 9 to 5 GDP.
This should help with Part III:

"Throwing more cold water over new year optimism, economics’ heaviest hitters, including Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, warn that far from entering into a robust period of recovery, the US in 2010 could end up looking like 1937. Then, the Roosevelt administration considered the Great Depression over, removed economic supports and the economy crashed again.

It is important to remember, says Krugman, that “occasional good numbers, signifying nothing… are common even when the economy is, in fact, mired in a prolonged slump.” In 1996, statistics in Japan suggested its economy was recovering strongly when, in fact, it was only halfway through its stagflationary decade."
http://sigmundcarlandalfred.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/top-economists-paint-gloomy-picture-for-2010/

Unknown said...

Hi Harcharan,
Thank you for your comments.

Najib has not shown any positive plan neither any effort other than playing the PR game in the governing and economics of this country.

A recent World Bank report said, “The Malaysian economy seems to be caught in a middle income trap and is unable to remain competitive as a high-volume, low-cost producer, yet unable to move up the value chain and achieve rapid growth by breaking into fast-growing markets for knowledge and innovation-based products and services.”

The report warned that Malaysia’s growth performance was lagging behind its neighbors because of its continuing inability to decisively generate added value to its economy.

It also said that we will remain in a “middle-income trap” and fail in its longstanding goal of joining the developed world by 2020 unless it can add value to its economy.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile,

RPK who is Najib`s 1Fugitive has been located ....at Crossroad improving the consumer figures
http://rights2write.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/malaysian-malays-and-rpk-at-a-crossroad/

"This is indeed very confusing. The RMP cant seems to find RPK and yet we found him at the Crossroad, in Concord which if I am not mistaken is own by his cousin, HRH the Sultan of Selangor."

Punter said...

Sir,
Is there any possibility for you to make a guess as to the probable timing of the adverse fall of the Dow.
Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Where’s the RM10 billion, Khazanah?
Wed, Jan 6, 2010

SHAH ALAM: The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is yet to respond to calls to investigate the whereabouts of the RM10 billion allocated to Khazanah Nasional Berhad under the economic stimulus package announced last March.

PAS vice president Datuk Mahfuz Omar submitted a memorandum to PAC on Dec 10, asking it to investigate how the company was using the funds.

He told FMT there had been no response from the PAC.

“I have not heard from (PAC chairman) Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid,” he said. “No feedback so far. I believe nothing will happen.”

Mahfuz said it was “unusual” for the economy to shrink 1.2 percent in the third quarter of 2009 if Khazanah had indeed injected the RM10 billion into various projects.

Khazanah said in March that the funds would go towards what it called shovel-ready projects, but the public has heard nothing more about those projects since.

http://freemalaysiatoday.com/english/?p=6056

Unknown said...

Anon 1:11AM,
This a very cunning and wicked govt and rules through a veil of deception and illusion.
They knows all along where RPK is, it is just that they can never extradite him and they know why.
You can never extradite a good man just bcoz he speaks out against the corrupt govt.
The laws that they use against dissenters are not recognized laws of international standard. The sedition act is an outdated law and only used against opposition only as the same with a lot of other laws.
They knows that they cant extradite RPK for 1001 reasons so they just pretend they don't know where he is, Remember you are dealing with the "DECEPTICONS" here.
Their biggest failure is that they think the people are fools as 20 years ago.
Look further and deeper and you will see that all that is reported have a hidden agenda. Just the same with the Allah issue... they are trying to deceive the people and trying to break the opposition but let me tell you this... it is already written and they are destined to collapse and to oblivion. Umno will soon be no more and out of it a new and just party will rise that will make for a two party system.

Hi Punter,
I hope to write another story as partII with greater details on timing and other economic stuff, just that i am caught up with work and maybe before the end of week so just hold on a bit.

Anon 2:04Pm
This is exactly what i mean when i say they are the DECEPTICONS..Deception and Cons! Transparency is not a value with their governance, it is all a deception. We never know at the end of the day where our money has gone.

Anonymous said...

Why Dow did so badly in year of the Tiger, because the US got indepentant in the year of the Monkey (I read it form one astrology book). According to chinese astrology Tiger-Monkey worse of enemy.

dw said...

hi hawkeye,

i'm a trader for 20 yrs and been watching mkts like djia for >1 decade. personally i hv same projection that djia will have a bad slide in 2010.

in 1998, i had a big winfall in trading shorting the index futures. hopefully, this yr is another superb yr. in my research, the decline will initiate in feb /mar and last for est. 9 mths to the bottom!

you are welcome to view my trader's forum for free in djia mkts. www.pwforex.com/forum

Anonymous said...

Thank you for this info and what can be done to protect our Investments?

Unknown said...

Hi Anon 1:00 PM,
Yes you are right and the cycle for the USA is in the "Monkey" astrological symbol and Snake is the opposing symbol or "Clash". Will write more when i have the time on the events of the USA.

Hi dw,

Congrats on the windfall of 1998 and looks like you could get ready for another one coming as it could be in your personal cycle.
PS. Have visited your site and forum.

Hi Anon 9:14 AM,
How to protect your investments is a bit difficult to answer as than we would have to know what type of investments you are in and your entry point and investment strategy.
But in short if you are just a retail investor than you might want to have cash in hand to take advantage of the low values after a crash as there will be lots of attractive values than.

PS. Been a bit bz time for me but will hope to publish the next article soon. Pls feel free to post any questions or stories that you want to share.
Thank you all for visiting.

Anonymous said...

Hi Hawkeye,

Interesting article and thank you for the alert.

Anonymous said...

Hi Hawkeye

Interesting article.
Thanks for the alert and will definite be cautious.

sc said...

Dear Hawkeye

Know why the Dow crashes in the year of Tiger because the "bull" has ran away...haha

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Anonymous said...

I am very thrilled you wrote this...

Viola

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